Spaceship landing full#
Given that the full extent of NASA’s Artemis Program ambitions appears to be one Moon landing per year, there would be plenty of room for SpaceX to perform multiple additional landings independent of NASA while the space agency’s contractors struggle to build and launch a single SLS rocket in the same time-frame. If, for example, SpaceX privately human-rates Starship for launches and entry, descent, and landing it could use the Starship HLS lander it’s developed with NASA to land its own astronauts on the Moon without the need for SLS, Orion, or NASA. NASA rolled out its first SLS Block 1 rocket on March 18th, 2022 – more than 5 years behind schedule after more than 12 years of work. Put simply, there’s a real possibility that NASA’s seemingly extraordinary lack of motivation will create a scenario in which SpaceX could outgrow the space agency’s usefulness in the mid-2020s. Additionally, through NASA’s Human Landing System (HLS) program, SpaceX will be providing Starship as a service, meaning that the company will retain full rights to and ownership of any system that results. Without NASA’s interest and support, the Moon is a distraction from SpaceX’s real goals.
SpaceX, meanwhile, is privately developing Starship with the ultimate intent of landing humans on Mars. As a result, even in the likely scenario that SpaceX’s crewed HLS demonstration runs into a year or so of delays, there could still be a three or even four-year gap between crewed NASA Moon landings right when the program should be getting up to speed. Worse, if SLS Block 1B and EUS development are as poorly managed as SLS Block 1, it’s possible – if not likely – that Artemis IV and V will slip another year or two.
Rather, the anchor NASA has chained the Artemis Program to – SLS and Orion – is likely giving it no choice in the matter. In other words, NASA probably doesn’t want to plan for a three-year gap between crewed Moon landings. There are few conceivable scenarios where having a mission waiting on a rocket would be preferable to having a rocket waiting for a mission In an alternative scenario, if NASA was planning to take full advantage of every year it has and SpaceX’s Starship demonstration was still delayed, the space agency would simply end up with more SLS and Orion hardware on hand than it planned for – only a problem if the rocket is literally incapable of launching more than once every year or two. If SpaceX were to be ready on or close to the original schedule, that would leave NASA’s Moon landing program sitting on its hands for a third of a decade. The first explanation is arguably much likelier given that structuring schedules based on the assumption of delays would make very little logistical sense. In 2022, NASA now says Block 1B will debut no earlier than 2027, while the last Block 1 launch is NET 2025. In 2018, SLS Block 1B was expected to debut as early as 2024. Second, it could be the case that NASA and/or SpaceX expects Starship’s first crewed landing to be delayed by one or several years. First, NASA might prefer a multi-year delay between crewed Moon landings to building and launching another SLS Block 1 rocket, in which case the three-year landing gap is explicitly the fault of years of SLS Block 1B delays – specifically NASA and Boeing’s work on the rocket’s larger Exploration Upper Stage (EUS). There are only two obvious possible explanations. It’s difficult to properly convey just how bizarre such a huge gap would be. As published, NASA’s current Artemis plan would be akin to completing Apollo 11 – the first crewed Moon landing – in 1969 and then sitting around and waiting until 1972 for the next landing attempt. NASA's going to give us at least a year off between some flights /57YpQFTZUH- Loren Grush March 28, 2022Įvery single crewed Apollo Program mission to the Moon – including one aborted circumlunar mission, two missions to lunar orbit, and six successful landings – happened in less than four years.
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